2 picks for the MTV Movie Awards

[Oren1]

Bodog.
I know I think it was Sound who told me to hold off on these until he did a write-up, but I've had my eye on a couple of 'em and don't want to risk having to lay more chalk later on, even though one of these is the definition of a lock. Fist off, we've got Eminem for breakthrough performance. Now, I'm not even going to bother explaining this one to you. Go get that cash! I mean, come on. MTV's audience decides these. Next up, I like Two Towers for best action sequence. Reasons I took this:

Browsing the message boards on MTV.com, it was the overall favorite.

I've only seen Attack of the Clones and Two Towers of the four, but I personally would say that Two Towers takes this one. The Battle for Helm's Deep was spectacular. That's not saying that Star Wars was child's play, but Lord of the Rings is just slightly more popular right now and that film was more entertaining than Clones if you ask me.

-200 odds, much better value than some of the other favorites.

I'm also considering laying 500 bucks to win 100 on Spiderman and Dunst to grab best kiss, considering that one is pretty much a sure bet, as far as I'm concerned.

And, Jackass looks to make an upset in at least one of these categories with their ties to the MTV audience. Perhaps best on-screen team at 5-1 odds? Although that's a crowded competition, and the buzz on the message boards was all hobbits & gollum for that one. I think that Ferrell, Vaughn, and Wilson at 1/5 is a trap here.

I guess the other one that sticks out as having decent value to me is Two Towers for best movie at -200, but Spiderman could take it so I might stay away from that one...

 

[Gillian]

LISTEN UP....

IF YOU SIGN UP AS A MTV MEMEBER on their site.. you can VOTE on who you think should win each catagory. But here's the catch... you can VOTE AS MANY TIMES AS YOU WANT. NO BULLSHIT. I've tried it out for myself already. And it WORKS! Here's what I think we should all do... lets decide what we think the world is going to pick, and then well all take turns voting hundreds of times on what we've decided on. It's a for sure lock. I think we should do this... no reason not to. It's time to cash in. $$$

Let me know what you think.

Gil

 

[SoundofSilence]

Oren:

I didn't say wait until I did a writeup, I said I was holding off until MTV announces who was going to be present at the awards.

Looking at past awards, it doesn't appear that they give awards out to people who aren't present -- so betting on someone who isn't going to show up to the awards is almost throwing money away.

As for ties to the MTV audience, its not just Jackass... 8-Mile, Old School, Blue Crush, Mr. Deeds, and Drumline all have MTV ties somehow.

I think your best bet is to 'cap them like you normally would, and then try and find out who will be present and just make those bets that involve someone that will be there.

As for Gil's idea of altering the outcome -- not likely. I'm guessing they only take a small % of what the internet vote is, and like I said before -- they probably alter it to fit who they want to win.

 

[Gillian]

If what you say is true... then it's a bullshit bet, IMO. Why risk it if it's fake crap.

Gil

 

[SonofaGun]

Gil, if that is true, then I suppose you're not assuming that books have a few of their own clerks voting in all day now do you?

 

[SonofaGun]

it's sort of like American Idol, you don't think they'll let the public decide all of them right?

 

[Oren1]

Maybe the reason the winners were there to claim their prize is because MTV told them they were going to win and asked them to show up.

 

[Royler]

Uh,

It's fairly common knowledge that MTV notifies winners in advance to make sure they're there for the publicity.

 

[SoundofSilence]

That's the whole point I'm making.

You think every nominee is just going to drop whatever project/vacation/acid-trip they are on to attend the MTV Movie Awards?

Say Leonardo Dicaprio gets the most votes for Best Male Performance, but can't show up. Tobey Maguire on the other hand gets the 2nd amount of votes, and is already confirmed to be attending. Who do you think MTV is going to give the award to?

Look back to past MTV movie awards and see how many of the nominees that weren't present actually won... This isn't the Oscars or the MTV MUSIC Awards, its the MTV Movie Awards, and there's sure to be quite a few nominees that are no-shows... They won't win, so if your money is on them, its just throwing it away.

 

[Oren1]

O.K., well I said that because I was thinking that maybe they wouldn't necessarily alter the outcome just because the winners weren't there. Maybe in the past most of the winners have decided to show up, so they haven't had to change the results. I mean, there is no way in hell someone is going to believe that The Ring really won best picture if no one from The Two Towers or Spiderman shows up. Regardless, it will obviously be beneficial to know who's on the guest list.

 

[SonofaGun]

On the other hand, I've seen quite a few times where the no-show winners gave their acceptance speeches over via satellite or pre-taped clip.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I'm gonna do a little further research on it tonight, but you know its gotta be tough when Neve friggin' Campbell won for best female performance from Scream 2 a few years back.

 

[Oren1]

true dat

 

[SonofaGun]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sound of Silence:
I'm gonna do a little further research on it tonight, but you know its gotta be tough when Neve friggin' Campbell won for best female performance from Scream 2 a few years back.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

SOS, that's the whole point. This isn't Oscar or Golden Globe. It's fukkin MTV! The most popular star and movie among the teenage crowd will grab the award. Simple.

 

[SonofaGun]

This is how I see the current race.

Best Male Performance:

Straight up, Viggo, Leo, and Vin are out. Lord of the Rings is indeed very popular among the teenagers, but Viggo is not your "MTV" star. This leaves eminem and Toby. Either could grab it I think. Toby's odds of 4-1 looks tasty to me.

Best Female Performance:

I'm not sure why Latifah is the favorite here. I think it's Reese or Kirsten Dunst's to take. The MTV crowd loves Reese and many of her films.

Best Villain:

Colin Farrell or Mike Myers

Best Virtual Performance: this HAS to go to Gollum but at 1-7 odds, I'm not touching that.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Son of a Gun:

You obviously haven't done a whole lot of research on this.

"The most popular star and movie among the teenage crowd will grab the award."

Best Kiss ('99): Paltrow/Fiennes (Shakespeare In Love)

New Filmmaker ('00): Spike Jonze (Being John Malkovich)

Best Picture ('00): American Beauty -- SOMETHING ABOUT MARY won in '99, seems pretty polar opposite for both of these to be the "MTV crowd's" pick for best flick.

Best Breakthrough Performance ('01): Erika Christenson (Traffic)

Best Female Performance ('02): Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge)

Breakthrough Performance Male ('02): Orlando Bloom (Lord of the Rings)


Shakespeare In Love, Being John Malkovich, American Beauty, Traffic, and Moulin Rouge were hardly movies that the "MTV crowd" flocked to... I'd be impressed if even half of them *SAW* Moulin Rouge or Shakespeare In Love. In all of those categories, there was at least one "popular MTV figure" that didn't win.

I think what pretty much sums up how much a lot of these awards depends on who's there, and who needs good publicity at the time is the fact that in '99 NEVE CAMPBELL won best female performance for Scream 2 and in '02 NICOLE KDIMAN won best female performance for Moulin Rouge -- try and tell me there is *ANY* correlation there.

 

[Oren1]

So what do you guys think about this year's best kiss? I see Spidey/Dundst's chances of taking this as being about 99.9%. Admittingly, I haven't seen any of the other kissing scenes, but I think just about every single person in the message boards said Spidey, hands down. Plus, it's the obvious choice, being that it was such an origional and dinamic scene, and one of the most memorable ones from one of the biggest blockbusters of all time.

 

[Oren1]

correction on the odds for Two Towers taking best action sequence, they are 4/5.

 

[Oren1]

2-0

 

[SoundofSilence]

Sadly, when I got advice to hold off on my wagers until I saw who would be there, I never got back to them and placed them. So of course, I *would* have cleaned up. This is what I posted to my sports-book yahoo group (sans writeup, cause it was pretty long):

[LOSS] Best Male Performance: Tobey Maguire (Spider-Man) +400
[WIN ] Best Villian: Samara Morgan (The Ring) +1500
[WIN ] Best Virtual Performance: Gollum (LoTR 2) -700
[WIN ] Best Kiss: Maguire/Dunst (Spider-Man) -125
[WIN ] Best Action Sequence: The Two Towers (Helms Deep) -125
[WIN ] Best Fight: Yoda vs Christopher Lee (Star Wars: Episode 2) -500
[WIN ] Breakthrough Male Performance: Eminem (8 Mile) -200


Damn